With the inflation reports showing their cards, the Consumer Price Index has shown to be in line with expectations, but unexpectedly the Producer Price Index has come in substantially higher than expected.
This may indicate that future core cost increases are headed for consumers, as rising costs are passed through producers and businesses down to the customer level.
This is somewhat offset by Consumer Sentiment having risen, breaking a three-month downward trend. Largely due to the deal with Iran that took place this weekend, there appears to be considerable optimism that fuel prices will return to previous norms. This makes it very unlikely that the Federal Reserve will adjust rates either up or down in the coming week.
Consumer Price Index
The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 4.2%, both in line with expectations. The core CPI accelerated 0.2% for the month and 2.9% from a year ago. While the annual rate was in line with the forecast, the monthly gain was below the 0.3% estimate.
Producer Price Index
The producer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in May, putting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate at 6.5%, the highest since November 2022. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PPI accelerated 0.4%, compared with the consensus view of 0.5%, indicating that rising fuel prices are causing much of the inflationary burden.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05%, bringing the current rate to 5.84%.
- 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.04%, bringing the current rate to 6.52%.
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw a -0.04% decrease, with current rate at 6.14%.
- 30-Year VA rates saw a -0.03% decrease, with current rate at 6.16%.
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 229,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The previous week landed at 225,000.
What’s Ahead
A lighter release week ahead, with only the Federal Reserve Rate Decision on the horizon.