The core CPI and PCE data have been released, leaving only the non-core CPI data delayed. Amid the Iran war, inflation has once again risen to higher levels, with most sectors seeing widespread price increases due to higher fuel and energy costs. As fuel costs rise, there is a knock-on effect across other consumer products as well. However, inflation has remained within expectations when considering the impact of the war.
PCE Index
Shortly before the start of the Iran war, a key measure of U.S. inflation rose at an excessive pace for the third month in a row, underscoring the latest challenge facing the Federal Reserve as it tries to squelch stubborn price pressures. The personal-consumption price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, rose by 0.4%, matching the forecast of economists.
Consumer Price Index
In March, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in March (SA); up 2.6 percent over the year (NSA). CPI for all items rises 0.9% in March; gasoline up.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03%, with the current rate at 5.74%
- 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09%, with the current rate at 6.37%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 5.91%
- 30-Year VA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 5.93%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 219,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week landed at 203,000.
What’s Ahead
The most significant upcoming releases will be additional inflation data from the remaining CPI and PPI reports, along with the Federal Beige Book, which will provide insight into the current state of the economy.