Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reported figures that were either entirely in line with expectations or just slightly below them. This does not set any new precedent for the potential of a rate increase from the Federal Reserve, as inflation is still rising, just at a largely expected rate.
Retail sales have also shown signs of a slump compared to previous quarters, with gas prices and Amazon Prime Day among the primary culprits. This isn’t necessarily a broader indicator of overall economic health, but there is certainly pressure being felt from persistent inflation across both consumer and manufacturing sectors.
Consumer Price Index
CPI increased 0.1% m/m (3.4% y/y) following a 0.4% monthly decline in June. The core index rose 0.2% after having been unchanged in June. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% monthly gain for the headline index and a 0.2% monthly increase for the core index. The 3-month rate for the headline index fell to 0.5% annualized in July from 2.8% in June while the 3-month rate for the core index slipped to 1.6% from 2.3% in June.
Producer Price Index
The producer price index, a measure of underlying inflation pressures, was unchanged for the month, below the 0.2% Dow Jones consensus estimate and after falling 0.1% in June. The June figure was revised from a previously reported decline of 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose 0.2%, against the forecast for a 0.3% gain. The core PPI excluding trade services increased 0.4%.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.05%, bringing the current rate to 5.96%.
- 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02%, bringing the current rate to 6.67%.
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with current rate at 6.29%.
- 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with current rate at 6.31%.
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 209,000 compared to the expected claims of 204,000. The previous week landed at 199,000.
What’s Ahead
A very light release week proceeding the inflation data, with only the economic leading indicators having any outsized influence.