While the Core PCE Index came in at 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%, overall inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
With inflation still running above the Federal Reserve’s target, there remains room for rates to stay elevated or potentially increase over the next several rate decisions if the Fed remains focused on restraining inflation.
The JOLTS job openings report has also revealed a larger-than-expected gap. Job growth across the board has been slowing, with growth concentrated in only a handful of sectors.
The nonfarm payroll figures have also come in well below expectations, while the unemployment rate remains elevated on a year-over-year basis when compared with historical levels over the past decade.
PCE Index
PCE increased 3.4% from a year earlier, while core PCE—which excludes food and energy—increased 3.0%. Both were still above the Fed’s 2% target.
JOLTs Job Openings
Job openings fell to 7.08 million in August, down from a revised 7.34 million in July and below economists’ expectations of 7.23 million. The job openings rate declined to 4.3%, signaling continued cooling in labor demand.
Non-farm Payroll
Average hourly earnings increased 0.1% in September to $37.81, bringing annual wage growth to 3.0%. Wage growth slowed from 3.1% in August, providing a more favorable signal for inflation and interest rates.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.18%, bringing the current rate to 6.60%.
- 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.25%, bringing the current rate to 7.28%.
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.05%, with current rate at 7.20%.
- 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.04%, with current rate at 7.21%.
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 197,000 compared to the expected claims of 200,000. The previous week landed at 202,000.
What’s Ahead
The following week will be relatively light, with the Consumer Sentiment Report being the largest release, alongside major bill and bond auctions. There are also a couple of key speeches from Federal Reserve members that could provide forward guidance on future rate decisions.