Recent economic data brought significant relief, with both the CPI and PPI indicating that inflation was running cooler than expected. In the context of the current administration, this was welcome news, helping to ease concerns about potential monetary policy changes. The Federal Reserve has very frequently signaled they will follow the data and this time it was a positive result towards reducing rates further this year. The change in administration, however, still remains unknown and there is a lot of unrest across lending partners and markets alike. This was also followed by a better than expected Retail Sales report which has shown 2025 to start off with some economic momentum. Both reports are critical factors in shaping future rate adjustments. Despite this, lending partners have been raising rates in the last few months, driven largely by uncertainty tied to the transition of administrative positions.
Consumer Price Index
The increase in the core rate in the last 12 months dipped to 3.2% from 3.3%. But that still leaves it well above the Fed’s goal of 2% inflation. Meanwhile, overall consumer prices showed a sharper 0.4% increase largely because of higher food and energy prices. Those prices are expected to taper off in January.
Producer Price Index
Producer-price index rises just half as much as forecast. The producer-price index, where the seeds of inflation are planted, rose a mild 0.2% last month, the government said Tuesday. Wall Street had predicted an increase double that size.
Retail Sales
Retail sales grew steadily in December 2024, rounding out a strong holiday shopping season and signaling that the economy entered the new year with solid momentum. According to government data released Thursday, sales at U.S. retailers rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4%, slightly below Wall Street’s expectations.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.13% with the current rate at 6.27%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.11% with the current rate at 7.04%
MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.47%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week. Current rates at 6.48%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 217,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week landed at 203,000.
What’s Ahead
We should expect the Manufacturing PMI preliminary this week, as well as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment report. Given the bank holiday from Martin Luther King, there is a relatively light release schedule otherwise.