With next week bringing the latest wave of inflation data reports–namely the CPI and PPI–this week featured a slew of releases with minimal impact. The Trade Deficit and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book stood out as the main indicators reflecting the current state of the economy. Although tariffs have largely been put on pause, their effects continue to reverberate across numerous industries.
Significant concern remains due to the instability in decision-making from the current administration. The Trade Deficit came in as expected, with the deficit cut in half following the announcement of tariffs, which caused imports to plunge. Meanwhile, the Beige Book indicated a significant slowing of the economy.
Federal Reserve Beige Book
The U.S. economy slowed to a crawl in May, with consumers pulling back on spending and businesses delaying hiring, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey released Wednesday. According to the report, nine of the 12 Fed districts reported contraction in economic activity or no change in growth. The remaining districts saw slight growth.
Trade Deficit
The numbers: The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed 55.5% in April to $61.6 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had predicted the deficit would narrow to a seasonally adjusted $63.3 billion from a record $140.9 billion in March.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
o 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 5.99%
o 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 6.85%
MND Rate Index
o 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.02% for this week. Current rates at 6.47%
o 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.50%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 247,000 compared to the expected claims of 236,000. The prior week landed at 239,000.
What’s Ahead
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reports are the major releases scheduled for next week, with most expectations pointing toward a rise in inflation in the near future. These will be followed by the Consumer Sentiment report.