While delayed, the Producer Price Index has indicated that the war in Iran has pushed producer prices to new highs, as oil prices have surged amid the conflict, coming in at more than double the expected value. It is unlikely we will see prices recede, even if there is a quick resolution. There will be long-term impacts that continue to keep gas prices elevated until then.
Outside of the influential PPI release, the schedule was relatively slim, with only further discussion of the FOMC rate decision, which largely focused on maintaining the status quo until more data and developments come to light.
Producer Price Index
The producer price index, a measure of pipeline costs that producers receive for their products, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.7% on the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the so-called core PPI increased 0.5%.
For the all-items index, prices rose faster than the 0.5% pace in January. However, the core increase was less than the 0.8% for the prior month. On a 12-month basis, headline PPI inflation was at 3.4%, the most since February 2025, while core was at 3.9%, according to the BLS. The Federal Reserve targets inflation at 2%.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.04%, with the current rate at 5.54%
- 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.11%, with the current rate at 6.22%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.13%, with current rates at 6.00%
- 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.12%, with current rates at 6.01%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 205,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 213,000.
What’s Ahead
Employment data, employment, wages, consumer confidence, and manufacturer reports such as the PMI are due next week without any delays.