While the week had a significant absence of impactful data releases, there are still the notable U.S. retail figures numbers, as the turbulent tariff policies that have been announced have sent shockwaves across many industries. This time the U.S. retail sales have seen a significant jump as consumers try to get ahead of the tariff policies, although it is suspected that the subsequent data will show a significant curtailing of purchasing power by consumers. This restraint in the future is what has most analysts concerned about the future in addition to inflation rising as a result of the tariff policies.
U.S. Retail Sales
The numbers: Retail sales in the U.S. surged 1.4% in March—the biggest increase in more than two years—as shoppers sought to buy big-ticket items such as cars before Trump administration tariffs could raise prices.
The rise in sales surpassed Wall Street expectations, but it doesn’t mean the U.S. economy is trouble-free. The trade wars threaten to boost prices, fuel inflation and slow the economy in the months ahead if they persist.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.21% for this week, with the current rate at 6.03%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.21% for this week, with the current rate at 6.83%
MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.36%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.38%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 215,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 224,000.
What’s Ahead
Watching where crude oil is headed in the coming weeks will also be important to see how international trade is handling the recent tariff policies. In addition, the Consumer Sentiment report will give a better indication of how safe consumers feel in the current climate, along with the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book.